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The date is September 8, 1900, the night before a massive hurricane strikes the coast of Galveston, Texas, killing between 6,000-10,000 people. Thirty-eight-year-old Isaac Monroe Cline is a meteorologist who heads the US Weather Bureau office in Galveston. He lives in a house on stilts with his wife Cora and their three daughters: 12-year-old Allie May, 11-year-old Rosemary, and 6-year-old Esther Bellew. Also living in the house is Joseph, Isaac's younger brother who works under him at the Weather Bureau.
Although US Weather Bureau agents in Cuba are unperturbed by a storm that passed over the island a few days earlier, Isaac can't sleep. Despite the Bureau's belief that the storm will lose its strength before making landfall in Louisiana or Texas, Isaac is troubled by the sound of deep-ocean swells falling on the beach three blocks from his house. Moreover, Cuba's own meteorologists disagree with their American counterparts about the size and character of the storm.
At dawn, Isaac rides his horse-and-cart through the glittering streets of Galveston: “It was a gorgeous morning" (10). The biggest cotton port in the country, Galveston is in competition with Houston to be the preeminent city in Southeast Texas. Referred to by the New York Herald as "the New York of the gulf" (12), Galveston is said to have "more millionaires per square mile than Newport, Rhode Island" (13). Isaac rides to the beach and times the minutes between swells: “Many years later he would write, 'If we had known then what we know now of these swells, and the tides they create, we would have known earlier the terrors of the storm which these swells...told us in unerring language was coming'" (14).
Here, the narrative shifts in time to detail Isaac's upbringing and career as a meteorologist. Born in 1861 in Eastern Tennessee, Isaac grows up on a farm in rural Monroe County. From an early age, Isaac is fascinated by meteorological phenomena: “Lightning was barely understood, tornadoes not at all. To a boy in a land of ghosts and wild men, how could they not be alluring?" (29).
At Tennessee's Hiwassee College, Isaac is a polymath who studies mathematics, physics, chemistry, Latin, and Greek. On the recommendation of Hiwassee's president, US Signal Corps chief General William B. Hazen recruits Isaac to the US Weather Bureau in 1882. Despite having only been established around a decade earlier, the Weather Bureau is already embroiled in an embezzlement scandal. Moreover, many Americans question the efficacy and even the morality of a national forecasting service: “Some critics argued men should not try to predict the weather, because it was God's province; others that men could not predict the weather, because men were incompetent" (31). Rather than try to predict the weather, most men are content to record it meticulously, giving humanity the illusion of control over natural phenomena.
Larson goes on to detail the history of hurricanes starting with Christopher Columbus, who in 1492 becomes the first European to witness a hurricane, albeit from afar. Ten years later, Columbus encounters a hurricane at a much closer distance when a storm makes landfall on the island of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the field of atmospheric sciences moves forward at a crawl. It isn't until 1638 that Galileo Galilei successfully proves Aristotle's ancient hypothesis that air has weight. Building on Galileo's research, Evangelista Torricelli's invents the barometer, a device used to measure air pressure. Because hurricanes are accompanied by a dramatic drop in air pressure at sea level, Torricelli's device becomes an essential tool for storm detection.
As European powers continue to expand their commercial and military might around the globe, hurricanes become a matter of national interest. The hurricane season of 1780 alone kills thousands of soldiers and seamen in the West Indies, along with countless others who live on these islands: “Clearly hurricanes posed a greater menace than any single nation's forces" (51).
While surveying the aftermath of a hurricane that made landfall near New York City in 1821, a saddler named William Redfield observes that the trees in Northern Connecticut had fallen in the opposite direction of the trees further South. His findings lead to the discovery that hurricanes take the shape of a whirlwind. Further, his research inspires several merchant captains and naval officers to write down their observations of the meteorological phenomena they encounter. Isaac himself reads a number of these observations with interest, particularly the reports of the 1876 Backergunge cyclone which devastated the coast of present-day Bangladesh on the Bay of Bengal: “[Isaac] still had no appreciation of how similar the undersea landscape, or bathymetry, of Galveston Bay was to that of the Bay of Bengal. That would come later" (54).
After providing a brief history of hurricanes, Larson picks up where it left off in Isaac's story. Isaac's first assignment with the Weather Bureau is to take daily readings in Little Rock, Arkansas. Later, he is transferred to Abilene, Texas where he meets Cora May Bellew, whom he marries in 1887. Two years later, Isaac is tasked with overseeing the Galveston office and rescuing it from a state of disrepair. From Galveston, Isaac will also establish and oversee the first Texas-wide weather service.
The year 1891 brings major changes to the US Weather Bureau. When the agency is transferred from the Signal Corps to the Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Secretary Sterling Morton slashes scientists' salaries and appoints politically ambitious men like Major H.H.C. Dunwoody to high-ranking positions. When current bureau chief Mark Harrington complains about Dunwoody and the discord his anti-science attitudes cause in the bureau, Morton fires Harrington and replaces him with a man named Moore. Under Moore, the discord in the Weather Bureau intensifies: “Moore believed tension was good. The system, he told Congress, helped explain why Weather Bureau employees had to be committed to insane asylums more often that employees of any other federal agency. He said this with pride" (73). That same year, Isaac publishes an article in the Galveston News for which he would later become infamous. In it, he writes, "It would be impossible for any cyclone to create a storm wave which could materially injure the city" (84). Isaac's article also plays a role in the city's decision to forestall the construction of a seawall which would have likely mitigated the damage from the storm.
In 1898, Isaac is stationed for a brief period in Mexico. It is there, while abroad a ship off the coast, that Isaac encounters his first hurricane. Rather than instilling in Isaac a sense of dread, surviving the experience may have emboldened him: “On some level, perhaps, he came to believe that hurricanes were not quite as awful as Piddington, Redfield, and Dampier had depicted. Or he assumed that technology—in this case, the modern steamship—had stripped hurricanes of their power to surprise and destroy" (75).
The book's Prologue serves in large part to advance Larson's broader thesis that at the turn of the century, America was filled to the brim with a false and ultimately dangerous sense of confidence. He writes, "The nation in 1900 was swollen with pride and technological confidence. […] There was talk even of controlling the weather—of subduing hail with cannon blasts and igniting forest fires to bring rain. In this new age, nature itself seemed no great obstacle" (5). In reading this passage, one may be reminded of US President Donald Trump reportedly asking national security officials if it is possible to stop hurricanes with nuclear bombs.
There were several reasons for Americans—specifically white American men—to feel confident about their nation's future in 1900. The Western frontier, along with the American Indians who long inhabited it, had finally been conquered. Apache leader Geronimo's surrender in 1886 along with the massacre of the Sioux at Wounded Knee in 1891 marked the effective conclusion of the United States' centuries-long war with the continent's indigenous peoples. The Spanish-American War of 1898 was an extraordinarily popular source of national reconciliation, as it gave American men from the North and South the first opportunity to fight alongside one another since the Civil War. The war ended with a US victory in less than 100 days, and 289 Americans perished in the conflict.
America had also grown into an industrial and technological force to be reckoned with on the global stage. Thanks to the efforts of Andrew Carnegie and countless workers, America had become the world's largest steel producer. Following a halt in production during the Civil War, the country had regained its position as one of the world's top producers of raw cotton, an industry Galveston sat at the center of as the nation's top cotton port. Meanwhile, three of the most transformative technological inventions of the previous century—Samuel Morse's telegraph, Alexander Graham Bell's telephone, and Thomas Edison's light bulb—all came from the minds of Americans (or, in Bell's case, a Scotsman who long ago chose America as his adopted country).
While this collective sense in confidence in America may have been well-earned in some respects, it also requires a measure of self-delusion to maintain, specifically in respect to man's illusory sense of control over the weather. Larson writes, "Countless men, including some of the most prominent of their times, kept daily track of the weather and often for decades on end. […] By recording the weather, quantifying it, comparing it year to year, they demystified it at least to the point where storms ceased to be punishments meted out by God" (37). While the Age of Reason in America, guided by intellectual leaders like Thomas Jefferson—and, indeed, Isaac—brought with it dazzling technological feats, it also gave man a false sense of having finally conquered God and nature.
This attitude is most clearly represented in the book by Isaac. Even though Isaac possessed as much knowledge of meteorological phenomena and their history as any American alive, he is extremely selective and biased about processing this knowledge in respect to forecasts surrounding Galveston's susceptibility to hurricanes. In his infamous 1891 article in the Galveston News, Isaac dismisses two hurricanes that recently struck the Texas coast in 1875 and 1886 as anomalies that can furthermore be dismissed because they caused little in the way of property damage. However, Isaac fails to mention loss of life in the article. One of the storms "killed 176 people. Compared with the death tolls of the great Bay of Bengal typhoons, this raw total did not seem like much. However, Gen. Adolphus Greely, who visited Indianola six months after the storm, estimated the death toll amounted to one-fifth of the city's population" (82).
The death toll of the Galveston hurricane, as a proportion of the whole, will be roughly one-sixth of the population. Because over 37,000 live in Galveston in 1900, the death toll is 6,000. Therefore, the previous hurricane should have served as a warning for Isaac, rather than something worthy of dismissal. While Larson points out that Isaac's stated lack of anxiety around hurricanes is in part a result of boosterism for his city in its ongoing competition with Houston, his unwarranted confidence in the face of nature's most devastation phenomena is well in keeping with American attitudes at the turn of the century.
Finally, Isaac allows his own personal experiences to also prop up this sense of confidence around hurricanes. When Isaac first encounters a hurricane in 1898 while stationed off the coast of Mexico, he reacts to having survived it not by thanking God but by allowing himself to be filled with pride over conquering it.
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By Erik Larson